MARKET REVIEW : MIXED/BEARISH (30.03.2008)

SUMMARY

CRB Index versus Bonds=>Mixed.Bearish
CRB index=>Bullish
Bonds=>Bearish
Oil=>bullish
Gold=>bullish
US Dollar=>Bearish
DJ Ind.Average=>Mixed
S&P500=>Bearish
NASDAQ=>Bearish
VIX=>Bearish

The message is mixed. Tendency is downwards. (Major trend is down)

DAX STAGE ANALYSIS



DETAILED

CRB INDEX v.s. BONDS



CRB Index



Bonds





Crude Oil - Brent





Gold (fixing)





US Dollar





Dow Jones Ind. Average



S&P 500



NASDAQ



VIX

Price, Volume and open interest

Benefits of monitoring volume:

• it is possible to see if the volume and price are in agreement.
• if they are not in agreement it indicates that the trend is not strong
  

Markets are speaking with to vocabularies. They are volume and price.

Rising prices and falling volume indicates an abnormal situation and weak trend. this activitiy is associated with a primary bear market. It can be used as a bear market indicator.[3]

Dr.Elder defines the volume in connection with trendlines.

If volume expands when prices move in the direction of a trendline, it confirms that trendline; if volume shrinks when prices pull back to a trendline, it also confirms the trendlines. If volume expands when prices return to a trendline, it warns of potential break; if volume shrinks when prices pull away from a trendline, it warns that the trendline is in danger.[1]

There are more bull markets than the bear markets. Volume give different massages in bull and bear markets. In bull markets, if prices do not increase at the top of the movement and high volume appears, it indicates that distribution is taking place. In the bear markets, if prices do not fall appreciably and high volume appears at the bottom, it signifies that accumulation has been completed and the turn is near[2].

Resources:
[1] Trading for a living, Dr. Elder, p.88-92
[2] Oriline, D.Foster Ticker Technique (1935)
[3] Technical analysis explained, Martin Pring,p.397-404

Price, Volume and open interest

Benefits of monitoring volume:

• it is possible to see if the volume and price are in agreement.
• if they are not in agreement it indicates that the trend is not strong
  

Markets are speaking with to vocabularies. They are volume and price.

Rising prices and falling volume indicates an abnormal situation and weak trend. this activitiy is associated with a primary bear market. It can be used as a bear market indicator.[3]

Dr.Elder defines the volume in connection with trendlines.

If volume expands when prices move in the direction of a trendline, it confirms that trendline; if volume shrinks when prices pull back to a trendline, it also confirms the trendlines. If volume expands when prices return to a trendline, it warns of potential break; if volume shrinks when prices pull away from a trendline, it warns that the trendline is in danger.[1]

There are more bull markets than the bear markets. Volume give different massages in bull and bear markets. In bull markets, if prices do not increase at the top of the movement and high volume appears, it indicates that distribution is taking place. In the bear markets, if prices do not fall appreciably and high volume appears at the bottom, it signifies that accumulation has been completed and the turn is near[2].

Resources:
[1] Trading for a living, Dr. Elder, p.88-92
[2] Oriline, D.Foster Ticker Technique (1935)
[3] Technical analysis explained, Martin Pring,p.397-404

MARKET REVIEW : BULLISH (23.03.2008)

SUMMARY

CRB Index versus Bonds->Bearish
CRB index->Bearish
Bonds->Bearish
Oil->Bearish
Gold->Bearish
US Dollar->Bearish
DJ Ind.Average->Bullish
S&P500->Bullish
NASDAQ->Bullish
VIX->Bearish

Stock market is BULLISH.

DAX STAGE ANALYSIS



STATISTICS



RS of DAX Stocks



DETAILED

CRB INDEX v.s. BONDS



CRB Index



Bonds





Crude Oil - Brent





Gold (fixing)





US Dollar



Dow Jones Ind. Average



S&P 500



NASDAQ



VIX

MARKET REVIEW : MIXED (17.03.2008)

SUMMARY

CRB Index versus Bonds->Bearish/consolidation
CRB index->Bullish
Bonds->Bullish
Oil->Bullish/consolidation
Gold->Bullish
US Dollar->Bearish
DJ Ind.Average->Bullish/consolidation
S&P500->Bearish
NASDAQ->Bullish/consolidation
VIX->Bearish

STATISTICS

17.March is St. Patrick's day. 20. March is option expiration date. Markets are closed on 21.March Good Friday. 23.March is easter.



DETAILED

CRB index versus Bonds



CRB Index



Bonds





Crude Oil - Brent





Gold (fixing)





US Dollar



Dow Jones Ind. Average



There is no impulse signal but force index and RSI is weakening. This index is consolidating or bullish.

S&P 500



NASDAQ



VIX