M3 Money Supply and DAX

Datasource: http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/ecb/BSI-M-U2-Y-V-M30-X-1-U2-2300-Z01-E-m#Data

Seasonality of DAX

The image below shows the seasonality of the DAX index. The cycles below are constructed by using 19740102 - 20100409 range. Accordingly we can expect DAX to go down in september and go up at the end of october.

Learn from the history

There is similarity between 2003 market buttom and 2009 market buttom. It is possible to learn from history. Market broke down in March 2004. this pattern is repeated with 2 months delay in 2009 mai. Begining 2004 markets followed a consolidation phase until october 2004. Considering this delay I would expect the market to break upward betwen october and december of 2010.