KORAY's BULL&BEAR INDEX

.. for HDAX index.

MARKET REVIEW : BULLISH (18.Mai.2008)

SUMMARY

The short-term (1 week) message is bullish. 

Growth index is gaining momentum

DETAILED

CRB INDEX v.s. BONDS

CRB Index

Bonds

Crude Oil - Brent

Gold (fixing)

US Dollar

NASDAQ

DOWJONES IND.

S&P 500

VIX

MARKET REVIEW : BULLISH (11.05.2008)

SUMMARY



The short-term (1 week) message is bullish. (Major trend is down)

Growth index is gaining momentum



DETAILED

CRB INDEX v.s. BONDS



CRB Index



Bonds





Crude Oil - Brent





Gold (fixing)





US Dollar





NASDAQ



DOWJONES IND.



S&P 500



VIX

Gold Prices and Inflation

Gold prices are generally seen as inflation hedge. If inflation is increase, gold prices will increase. But that is not always the case. McClellan has analysed this in his web site.

You have probably heard the idea that gold acts as a hedge against inflation, but this is not quite the right description. An up move in gold prices signals a coming up move in the inflation rate about 14-15 months later. So if you believe that inflation is going to pick up and want to protect yourself, then the best course of action is to buy gold 14 months ago.[1]

Gold is a crisis hedge(=insurance) not really an inflation hedge[2].If there is an anticipation of a greate bull market no one needs an insurance. There is no need to keep gold[3]. When the gold prices are declining this is generally bullish for the stocks. Falling dollar is also bullish for gold.

[1] http://www.mcoscillator.com
[2] http://www.inflationdata.com
[3] Intermarket Analysis: Profiting from Global Market Relationships, page 123

Gold Prices and Inflation

Gold prices are generally seen as inflation hedge. If inflation is increase, gold prices will increase. But that is not always the case. McClellan has analysed this in his web site.

You have probably heard the idea that gold acts as a hedge against inflation, but this is not quite the right description. An up move in gold prices signals a coming up move in the inflation rate about 14-15 months later. So if you believe that inflation is going to pick up and want to protect yourself, then the best course of action is to buy gold 14 months ago.[1]

Gold is a crisis hedge(=insurance) not really an inflation hedge[2].If there is an anticipation of a greate bull market no one needs an insurance. There is no need to keep gold[3]. When the gold prices are declining this is generally bullish for the stocks. Falling dollar is also bullish for gold.

[1] http://www.mcoscillator.com
[2] http://www.inflationdata.com
[3] Intermarket Analysis: Profiting from Global Market Relationships, page 123

Analysing Oil Prices

I found different methods to confirm the trend of the oil features. The first method is from a briefing quote.

Ideally, near-term futures prices would be below longer-term prices. That relationship is described as a contango market and it reflects a more natural order of things whereby prices are higher the further out one looks because of the greater sense of uncertainty that exists with respect to the supply situation over the long haul.

This contango relationship is not unlike interest rates.

A typical yield curve is an upward-sloping one where short-term rates are lower than long-term rates because there is less risk of default in the shorter borrowing period.

In essence, the futures market can be considered to have an inverted curve. Buyers are paying a premium to ensure immediate delivery because of heightened concerns about supplies being inadequate, notwithstanding OPEC's more complacent view of things.

The second method is from John Murphy(www.stockcharts.com) Market messages. He is telling that the oil stock prices must confirm the price of the oil. If there is a divergence something is going wrong. When oil stocks and crude oil move in the same direction it confirms the validity of the trend.

[1]http://www.briefing.com/
[2]http://www.stockcharts.com

Analysing Oil Prices

I found different methods to confirm the trend of the oil features. The first method is from a briefing quote.

Ideally, near-term futures prices would be below longer-term prices. That relationship is described as a contango market and it reflects a more natural order of things whereby prices are higher the further out one looks because of the greater sense of uncertainty that exists with respect to the supply situation over the long haul.

This contango relationship is not unlike interest rates.

A typical yield curve is an upward-sloping one where short-term rates are lower than long-term rates because there is less risk of default in the shorter borrowing period.

In essence, the futures market can be considered to have an inverted curve. Buyers are paying a premium to ensure immediate delivery because of heightened concerns about supplies being inadequate, notwithstanding OPEC's more complacent view of things.

The second method is from John Murphy(www.stockcharts.com) Market messages. He is telling that the oil stock prices must confirm the price of the oil. If there is a divergence something is going wrong. When oil stocks and crude oil move in the same direction it confirms the validity of the trend.

[1]http://www.briefing.com/
[2]http://www.stockcharts.com

Money : Making sense of so much market data on a given day

Click To Play

Money : Making sense of so much market data on a given day

Click To Play

MARKET REVIEW : BULLISH (27.04.2008)

SUMMARY

CRB Index versus Bonds=>bullish
CRB index=>bullish
Bonds=>bearish
Oil=>Bullish
Gold=>bearish
US Dollar=>bullish
DJ Ind.Average=>Bullish
S&P500=>Bullish
NASDAQ=>Bullish
VIX=>bearish

The short-term (1 week) message is bullish. (Major trend is down)

Growth index is gaining momentum



DETAILED

CRB INDEX v.s. BONDS



CRB Index



Bonds





Crude Oil - Brent





Gold (fixing)





US Dollar





NASDAQ



DOWJONES IND.



S&P 500



VIX