Ideally, near-term futures prices would be below longer-term prices. That relationship is described as a contango market and it reflects a more natural order of things whereby prices are higher the further out one looks because of the greater sense of uncertainty that exists with respect to the supply situation over the long haul.
This contango relationship is not unlike interest rates.
A typical yield curve is an upward-sloping one where short-term rates are lower than long-term rates because there is less risk of default in the shorter borrowing period.
In essence, the futures market can be considered to have an inverted curve. Buyers are paying a premium to ensure immediate delivery because of heightened concerns about supplies being inadequate, notwithstanding OPEC's more complacent view of things.
The second method is from John Murphy(www.stockcharts.com) Market messages. He is telling that the oil stock prices must confirm the price of the oil. If there is a divergence something is going wrong. When oil stocks and crude oil move in the same direction it confirms the validity of the trend.
[1]http://www.briefing.com/
[2]http://www.stockcharts.com
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